90,000 eager cricket fans will pack the MCG tomorrow to witness the continuation of the 2017/18 Ashes series. The Boxing Day Test is the highlight, and while the next two games are effectively dead rubbers, they are far from meaningless. Australia will be keen to push their advantage even further and whitewash the series, while England will be desperate to regain some respect and finish the series with a couple of wins to gain momentum before the highly anticipated one-day series in January.
Historical context
The last time Australia lost a Boxing Day Test was in 2010 when England bowled them out in the first innings for 98 and went on to win the test by more than an innings. England will be hoping for a repeat performance seven years later.
Starc out, Bird in?
Mitchell Starc has been ruled out of the fourth test with a bruised heel on his landing foot. The left-arm quick was desperate to prove his fitness and play in the calendar’s most famous test but was unable to improve enough to justify his selection. He will be replaced by right-arm fast-medium Jackson Bird.
Bird has a superb test record with 34 wickets in his eight tests so far, averaging 27.47. He has also been in outstanding form in the current first-class season and was a no-brainer for the Boxing Day Test. Starc’s injury will take away some of the variety that makes Australia’s pace attack so well-balanced. However, Bird will provide consistency and swing, while the enforcing duties will be taken on by Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood. Tim Paine is likewise in doubt as he deals with a family illness but is expected to line up on Boxing Day. If he isn’t able to play, Peter Handscomb will likely be recalled to take the gloves in front of his home crowd. Other than this, Australia will go into the fourth test with the same team.
Anderson’s concerns
James Anderson raised concerns mid-week, criticizing the short-ball tactics of the Australian fast bowlers to the tail, citing personal safety concerns while batting. Umpires indeed have the discretion to judge whether bowling is dangerous based on a batsman’s skill and experience. However, Anderson is unlikely to receive special treatment, given his extensive test career of 132 matches and over a thousand test runs. It will be interesting to see how he handles this in the upcoming Boxing Day Test.
England team changes
It is clear to all cricket fans that the England team needs changes, whether in tactics or personnel. England fast bowler Craig Overton will not take part in the Boxing Day Test and will likely be replaced by either uncapped South African-born Tom Curran or the more experienced Mark Wood, who caused Australia some issues in the 2015 Ashes Series.
Overton was England’s most impressive bowler in Perth, and his commitment will be missed. Stuart Broad should count himself lucky that a replacement will be brought in by necessity rather than at his expense. Broad needs to step up with both the ball and the bat to help England regain respect and pride. The conditions in Melbourne should suit him better, and he must lead from the front. England’s batting is unlikely to change despite another embarrassing collapse in Perth. Moeen Ali and James Vince are likely to be given another chance.
The way forward for the Boxing Day Test
I genuinely hope England can be more competitive in the Boxing Day Test. They have shown glimpses of real quality that suggest there is an excellent test side beneath the fragile surface and fickle lower order. The most important and hardest challenge now is the mental strength to keep fighting to the end. England have lost two of the past three series in Australia 5-0 and will be desperate to avoid the same result. However, a poor start in this test could lead to a drop in morale and a win for Australia. If it goes 4-0, I can only see one outcome at the SCG in the new year.