Mathematically Speaking: How The Premier League Title Race Could Pan Out

With the Boxing Day past us, we can well and truly claim that the Premier League is starting to take a final shape—if it hadn’t already. The top three teams according to current league standing are Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea.

Pep Guardiola’s men are at 55 points after 19 games and are running away with the league at this point. Despite being second, United are far behind with 43 points and Chelsea are at third with 42 points—and both of them have played a game more than the Etihad outfit.

And now, we bring you a mathematical perspective of the current standings of the Premier League.

The Citizens are yet to be beaten in the league this season and have only dropped points once. With a 12-point lead over United, City now have to win only 14 of their remaining 19 games. They have to face both Chelsea and Manchester United in the process and don’t have such a great record against the duo.

In their last 5 outings with Chelsea, City have won twice and lost thrice. Meanwhile, against United, City have won twice and drawn once and lost twice. With 40% and 50% win percentages against Chelsea and United respectively, we can assume that City might lose against Chelsea and draw against their eternal rivals—something which would still help City given their league standing.

For both Chelsea and United, they would not only have to win all of their games if they are have a shot at winning the league, but they will also need to pray that Guardiola’s men stutter somewhere down the line.

As mentioned earlier, Chelsea would—if statistics are seen only—win against City and pull them back a bit, but the Etihad outfit need to drop at least 18 points for Chelsea to even have a sniff at the title.

Between United and Chelsea, the latter hold a superior record against Mourinho’s men. In their last 6 games, the Red Devils could churn up only one win while the Blues have triumphed thrice against the Old Trafford outfit.

So, after all of this, there can only be one output: Manchester City winning the title with the utmost comfort. Even if Guardiola’s men lose 18 points from here—which is nigh on impossible—in the remaining 19 games, they could still win the title.


Well, the way Manchester United have been playing of late, it wouldn’t be surprising if they only just manage to finish top 4. The Red Devils have dropped 7 points from their last 3 games and are already suffering from a mid-season slump.

Chelsea, meanwhile, still don’t know their best combination, so it becomes a little difficult for Antonio Conte to challenge for the title and retain it.

This brings us to the conclusion that even mathematically speaking, Manchester City are going to win the league and it is going to happen with such a huge gap between them and the rest, that the Premier League 2017-18 will be dubbed as a one-team league.


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